Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Currency Wars On The Horizon__2011 to 2012…

You ain’t seen nothing yet__You wait till this specialty form of economic war gets under way… You think markets collapsed in Sept. `08, no, no, no__that was just the starting flag being dropped, for when a true currency war comes into full swing__all nations will bear the brunt of a storm so huge, you’ll wish for the devil to be in power, to solve such tremendous personal carnage. The last time the world experienced a major currency war__It brought us Hitler, and WWII, and all global foreign exchange markets had to be closed for twenty years, not opening again until 1957__under completely new law and trade structures…

What will such a currency trade panic truly bring…? So far, we’ve only witnessed about a 10% downturn in the real world economy. A full blown currency war will add another 15% to 20% downturn onto the already highly stressed global economies. Just what is a currency war…? It’s when all nations fear losing more jobs to other nations’ cheaper labor currency markets, and are actually losing more jobs than the public will put up with, so the local social unrest drives the politicians to make drastic policy action changes__which interprets into cheap currencies require physically and legally adjusting one’s own currencies to cheaper currency levels__which turns into a free-for-all of every nation copying the same policies__thus further destroying the internal credit values, just as China and India are presently doing, and many others also. But, when the larger and more important global economies get into this huge gambler’s game__the real markets start to topple__the major bond markets, which further implodes the rest of what’s left of these larger economies internal credit survival capacities__and turns to thoroughly negative credit productivities__and possibly the worst forms of social unrest imaginable…

So, if you think you’ve seen many people losing their houses already__you ain’t seen nothing yet. The scramble between government policy necessities, beyond these government’s monetary control and abilities, and the desire of the public to stay in their homes and feed their families, will become so acute__Marshal law will have to be declared in many countries__until the bimbos in power re-educate themselves to what was required back in the 1930’s, as this information is now most forgotten, and the ones that do understand it, are not in power positions, as they’ve been ostracized by the major academic and political pinheads, to the status of heterodox madmen, and are not listened to by hardly anyone in present power positions. Yet, the heterodox thinkers are actually the only ones who do know this old 1930’s history and truth, and the world’s very survival will hinge on how quickly the societies can push the proper people into the power positions__that will be absolutely needed. This scenario of power transition is completely unknown, as to how long this will take__but most likely the civil unrest, from a major global currency war will speed its occurrence… Let’s hope not too many starve, or are killed, before the nations awake…

Just an early warning, as many nations are already headed down this highly dangerous road… If you think you wanted collapse, to improve the system, you may just get your wish__but, it certainly won’t be as pretty as you may think…

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Love And Madness__Rationality And Generative Wisdom And Justice…

The child is born peering into a world of pure love and madness. S/he’s been gifted with the potential to grow and develop into the greatest being the world has ever produced__but the obstacles to the possibilities of such growth are profound, beyond the recognition of not only the child, but the adult community as well. The child, with its pure state of observational modal thought and vision, clearly sees the love and beauty directed toward its being__but, on the other hand also clearly sees all the dysfunctional evil of the adult and peer communities directed toward it as well. How is s/he going to navigate this ocean of confused and conflated thoughts and actions…???

Some children are lucky enough to be born into homes with two loving and well adjusted parental adults__while others are born into a living hell, all the way from mixed dysfunctionality, to partial dysfunctionalities of certain members of immediate family and close relatives and friends of the immediate family. For the ones born into these more dysfunctional families__the child peers into a split personality, often so great, it may seem near impossible to navigate. Let’s say our child Jack, at age three is just beginning to become aware of his surroundings and finds them not being as happy as he may have liked them to be. He sees his mother mentally and physically abusing his younger sister, yet showing over-disproportional love for him. His father is passive to most all around him, being more rational and just not wanting to involve himself in all life’s emotional intrigues. His grandfather is abusing his grandmother a bit, but not too much. His grandmother, having a split personality, due to class conflicts between her family and her husband’s, is first offering all the love and kindness one can muster__then out of the other side of this lady’s mouth comes the most vile attacks against all adults and children in her path. Her mother, the great grandmother, since everyone is living under her roof, is the monster ruling the home with an iron fist, and a meanness of spirit no better than an ancient Roman Emperor. Jack’s grandfather, the old patriarch of the family, reserved yet protective of his mental turf, is usually quite conservative, but quite often pushed by ol’ great-grand-ma into wild fits of rage, that practically blows the roof off the big ol’ farmhouse__the cows, chickens, pigs and horses run for cover__the cherries shrivel up and die, an fall off the trees…

It’s quite a minefield of dysfunctionality this new king of virgin spirit and soul has been born into__and people wonder why the world isn’t a better place to live...? There isn’t a family on Earth that doesn’t have some of this same dysfunctionality hidden in one of its many closets. So, what’s Jack to do with his young life, when faced with all this love and madness…? He awakes every day, stumbles down the stairs, and is first met by his grumbling great-grand-ma, never having a kind or nice word to speak says; “Did you forget to wash your hands and face?”, since the stairway door opened directly into the kitchen, where she’d be preparing breakfast for the four generation tribe, living under her roof. Jack, sneering as much as he could get away with, since he’d already had his mouth washed out with soap, by this beast, grumbled to himself and washed up__only to next meet the new day’s conflicts and arguments. Jack, to himself is saying; “Let me get my breakfast and get outta’ this madhouse….” First though are his morning chores, whether it be collecting eggs or feeding the farm animals and bringing in more wood for the coming winter, as even at three he’s been given his chores, but after this, he’s free to roam around on his own, as there’s no danger on the farm, except during bear cub season and an occasional bob-cat, in winter...

Jack, now outside and thinking to himself, wonders how long before his sister’s chores will take to be done, so’s he’ll have a playmate__and further wonders how much talking he’ll have to endure to revive his beautiful younger sister from the damage he realizes is being heaped on her each day, while doing her chores, eating, playing or whatever__as he’s experienced this most every day of his yet very young life… Usually his sister exits the house either in tears or so angry it takes Jack as much as an hour of cajoling her to revive her beautiful play spirit back to functionality__but he realizes this is becoming more difficult with each passing week. He knows he’s losing the beautiful spirit of his sister as a playmate, and clearly sees it as the abuse coming from the spiritually violent home environment she must endure__while he being older, has learned more how to con his way with everyone, and navigate the wiles of these internal home evils__which he’ll never forget…

Jack’s visited far and wide, even at this early age, and has learned other families are even far worse than his, and has yet to find a family in even better shape than his own__and wonders how can this be…? “I’m miserable with my home situation, and yet these others are even worse, with far more abuse clearly visible, to the naked eye…?” “Just what makes my world so evil…?” “I can clearly see through the whole family dynamic, then out into the community dynamic, and my family employs many of the town’s people, and my uncle is about the most miserable man I’ve ever met, which now runs the major family farm’s business enterprizes__so is it the fact that this business abuse runs clear from the top down…?” And yes, as Jack would later learn from deep conversations from his grand-dad__the problem is endemic from the largest corporations, to the smaller corporations and businesses, all the way to the bottom of family employment in these abusive entities__and it’s nothing but a trickle-down effect of global abuse, from a money system__no-one is wise enough to repair…

Well, this is a pretty simple system, and was taught to Jack by the age of seven, to be no more than this simple psychology of otherwise logical actions__but with his love being pushed into madness at such an early age by family circumstances__he’s thinking; “How many times does my innocent lil’ ol’ frame have to endure such abuse…?” Little did Jack know at the time, this love and madness circus would rear its ugly head, almost all throughout his future life__and most of these problems would come directly from his very own upbringing. First was his mother, grand-mother and great-grand-mother pushing his and his beautiful and caring sister’s feelings into hells of madness, no child should have to endure__then the early hell of religious and mystical brainwashing, taking place every day, mainly from his bi-polar mother, who was loving and caring one second, and terrorizing of spirit, mind and soul, the next second__which would lead into all the areas of madness a pure innocent soul could barely endure...

Not only was Jack to endure all these early stage madnesses, but at about age 12 to 15, he’d be pushed into one of the worst hell’s he’d ever thought possible__as this one would completely clean out his functioning emotional mind, and leave nothing but a raw functioning rational and logical soul__of pure emotional hell. This was the age of first loves turning to pure unimaginable hell, created by the over-forced religious brain-washing, by church and female members of a deeply fanatically religious family. Few can imagine the hell a mind goes through when love, religion, sexuality and rational reality collide__so head-on, the mind is actually pulverized completely. Now Jack, aged 15, must wander into the social world with an emotionless mind, except for anger__yet still retaining all his raw childhood soul memories, as they be too overwhelming to forget, and how’s he to function__other than as a Wildman…?

Well wildman, Jack thus became__jumping from one idea, hobby, intent, woman to another quicker than a frog playing leap-frog__but his emotions’ only tied more and more into a tighter knot than they’d ever been before__and through possession after possession, girlfriend after girlfriend and wife after wife, Jack finally hit the end-game wall__his entire brain/mind exploded from its raw reason and logic into pure psychological emotionalism__another hell, even deeper than all the hells he’d thus far experienced, as this one had no true feet on the ground, for its necessary guidance__what-so-ever. This newest self was lost in the self of itself__wandering in a soup of every conceivable idea the world has ever known__a virtual being in a canoe on and ocean of all knowing and all unknowing__all at once, being thrown into a very over-taxed brain/mind/soul. How in hell was Jack ever going to find his path back to any form of sanity…?

All Jack knew for sure were a few simple truths he’d always relied on all throughout his life__“For every action, there’s an opposite and equal reaction”, and “Fight fire with fire…” So Jack latched onto these two premises and ventured into what he’d hated most all his life__the study of the psychology of emotions, since it’s the emotions of emotions he’s now trapped in__but where to start. Well, it was religion and the deep psychological problems of, that drove him into this final cavern, so he decided a full exploration of all the world’s many religions would be one place to start, but since Jack had always been one to mix all his ideas in a stew of motives and intents, he also included all the psychologies and anthropologies he could put his hands on__to study as well…

Never did Jack realize where this would lead, through all the ancient mysticisms, such as the Tibetan Book of The Dead, and The Egyptian Book of The Dead, Zoroastrianism, Totemism, Animism, I Ching, Brahmanism, Hinduism, Taoism, Buddhism, Gnosticism, Judaism, Christianity, Islamism, etc., on and on, all the way through Satanism and all the occult systems and tribal Shamanisms. But all this study only led to a further hell__being narrowed in cultural beliefs to the point this path of study finally came to a dead-end in a near suicide attempt__because there seemed to be no way out of this last form of madness, where Jack’s soul had been mangled by all the great traditions, that were so touted to be the cure-all for such problems__but were clearly not the path for this tormented mind and soul to take__so what was left…?

Jack, with gun in hand, heading to blow his head off, knocked over a pile of encyclopedia yearbooks, and out fell the science yearbook to lil’ ol’ Einstein’s quote; “The secret of the old one.” And snap__immediately Jack’s mind turned back onto the path of reason and logic, which the emotional hell had blocked from his view for some ten years__so now he knew his future path was to renew the earlier path he’d attempted some 15 years earlier__to find that ever existing rationality and modal logic of the generative wisdom and true justice…

“Two things here are all-important to assure oneself of and to remember. The first is that a person is not absolutely an individual. His thoughts are what he is "saying to himself," that is, is saying to that other self that is just coming into life in the flow of time. When one reasons, it is that critical self that one is trying to persuade; and all thought whatsoever is a sign, and is mostly of the nature of language. The second thing to remember is that the man's circle of society (however widely or narrowly this phrase may be understood), is a sort of loosely compacted person, in some respects of higher rank than the person of an individual organism." C.S. Peirce


The Triadic Mind’s Eye__A Voyage Inside The Stereo-Graphic Mind’s Eyes…

When you look inside your mind, how far do you see…? Can you see both inside and outside your mind’s eye, or eyes…? Do you see a dyadic or a triadic+ multiplicity of its innate mechanics…? Do, or can you, see the stereo-graphic meeting of both hemisphere’s of your brain, as they both produce the independent images filtering into your mind’s eyes’ memory and perception spaces…? Just how far can you see into the biology of the deep extra-logical stereo-graphic sight, of your own mind…? Can you even see inside of your own mind’s eye, or just what it is seeing…? I know we’re all different, but I’m just wondering how different…???

Have you ever tried to go through that last and deepest closed door in your mind__or do you even dare open that last and deepest door…? I mean that when you are totally alone and contemplating those most scary depths of your mind, whether just an uncomfortable spot, or some area you feel holds possibly great evil, or some sorcery or witchcraft area__does such an area exist in your contemplating…? Well, it does in my mind, and has since I was a child. When I was real young, I was always afraid to enter the depths of my deepest thoughts, but when I got older, I even tried my damndest to pry open the door I knew had existed since childhood__but it wouldn’t open, until one day, it just flew open on its own__and such a flood-gate of information fell into my mind__it’s practically impossible to explain, but anyway__I’m gonna’ attempt it… I see this area as the fundamental mechanics of intuition__a mind’s eyes’ mechanics of perception, creativity, imagination and conception. I see this as the mind’s eyes’ extra-logical stereo-graphic sight, where the mind is filled to overflowing with initial information, feeding into memory, perception and later from these sources, producing our intuitional choices of this vast flood of informations and visions__as there’s really nothing to do with this much initial information capacity, except to try and focus one’s attention as much as possible into either intuitional or imaginational understandings__then on into either viable perceptions or self-constructed conceptions__whichever your choice may be…

Have you ever looked into your mind, and been completely overwhelmed by the shear amount of images to choose from, and how to filter em…? If so, where are they coming from…? I’ve always accepted the theory that all our super-objective ideas actually are accessible through our super-subjective apparatus, just as easily as our direct objective perception apparatus__but that all information comes from these two sources, though the super-subjective sources be the majority of our present moment sources__but where’d the initial super-subjective sources come from…? If I use objective conceptualism, I can see the mind’s eye-ism as a form of memory space mechanics, deriving information from the mind’s eyes’ deep fundamental direct, and indirect memory images__stored there through the entire course of life, by the automatic induction method of nature, herself. By this I mean, the natural perception taking in what it feels, sees, hears, tastes and smells__all its life, then storing this data in memory__and with our extra-logical sorting, to different memory spaces. To me, the initial conditions are this simple__but, do you actually realize how tremendously huge the giga-bites of global information this life storage system would really be…? And herein lies the complexity behind this door many are afraid to open__where the largest multitude of visions reside…

Open it, there’s nothing to be afraid of__the visions of what you’ll see will certainly amaze you__no matter what you think__all it takes is deep, deep concentration… It’s simply the gateway into seeing directly inside the mind’s eye and into intuition’s deepest secrets, even creativity’s secrets hide there__and epiphanies as well as lucid visions. As a matter of fact, it’s also the door to the gates of wisdom, though wisdom must be recognized as a generative process, or an evolving intelligence of the entire global bio-sphere… Once inside this amazing world, one can easily see how perception and abstracting information into the mind’s eyes’ conceptualism truly works__as the objective mind’s eye mechanics is simply the self-constructed conceptual inference mechanics, that can even be represented as the algebra of concepts, and has been by many, ever since Herbart’s first algebra of concepts, back in the late 1800’s, but anyway, I won’t go into these technicalities now… Going through this deepest of inner doors in the mind only requires perception’s deep extra-logical focusing, and concentration on entering a room in your mind, that holds a gold-mine of information, knowledge and wisdom__at least the view of what generative wisdom and pure justice truly are…

I know it’s a scary place to enter, as I’ve talked to many through the years about this very area of thought and vision__and many became freaked out to even discuss such depths of the mind__clearly deeper than what the average person is used to conversation going… This is going beyond all bounds of personal comfort, into the deepest personal and psychological exploration of self-contemplation__where you can actually see the very inner innate mechanics of the entire bio-brain, in action…
Follow, if you dare__It’s only self-knowledge__It won’t hurt you… I can state, those who did follow greatly benefited in understanding the subjective and objective inter-actions of their and others actions…

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

A Possible Science of Shamanism and Para-Psychology, Plus Extras…

I'm thinking what I posted below, may be able to be expanded upon__to possibly get to the heart of a simpler way of seeing the deeper, broader and more complex intelligence agendas. I don't really know yet, but I thought I'd just throw out a few ideas of how I happened to stumble a bit deeper into, what I'd consider the center of the brain, years ago__as I seriously believe as Uspensky stated years ago; "The super-objective state of mind, is found in the super-subjective state of mind..."

Now let me just say a few words about this__I studied and practiced Shamanism and para-psychology for about ten years, back in the `70's, as at that time, I'd more or less abandoned the academic and scientific worlds__as having drifted far too far from what I considered the common sense knowledgeable ground of reality and science__That's some 40 years ago... I made a ten year investigation of most all nations' native tribes, anthropologically, and through all the ancient and modern literature I could find about Shamanism, and its related psychologies and para-psychologies. Of course this required studying all the ancient religions as well, clear back to all the potlatch and phallic worship stages... The potlatch I found was the old tribal law systems for punishing greed, among other tribal dis-allowances. Phallic worship seemed to be more for centering power and worship toward the kings and shamans, to create community harmony__really an innocent purpose in those early eras, as greed was punished, and power was needed to defend the small communities... Often, the shamans were also kings__but, what did I learn about modern intelligence by studying and practicing this early form of Shamanism and relating it to the modern forms of para-psychology being most deeply studied by the Russian KGB, at the time...?

I learned how far the powers of the mind, whether straight_or on drugs_could be pushed without excessively harming itself or others__how deep an understanding of the mind's pure intellectual and emotional capacities reach__and exactly how much power either or both the emotional and intellectual sides of the mind are truly capable of... Before I investigated to this level of understanding, I was under the false illusion that the mind was truly capable of accomplishing almost unimaginable feats of both emotional and intellectual power. My greatest realization was to learn these were drastically false assumptions. Yes, the mind can be pushed, especially on the powers of LSD and a few other hallucinogenic drugs_to do some pretty amazing mind control scenarios__but almost never repeatable as to the desired scientific results. Yes, the mind does have the capacity on LSD to manipulate small crowds of people, but not in a totally controlled scientific fashion__but in a hap-hazzard way__being set by more the chemistry of the brain and the surrounding psychological settings. The Russians found these same results also, and finally most abandoned para-psychology research__except of course as pertains to propaganda__which addresses your point L_____ about the guy with the first blog post agenda__being set by pure propaganda, to swage others opinions to his desired goal__Bigotry...

So, though shamanism and para-psychology can not be scientifically effectively used for outright mind-control__these fundamental sourced ideas do have a tremendous power through the power of propaganda and suasion, to influence whole nations' agendas and intelligences__which most people are totally unaware of... In fact, at this very moment in history, the far left is trying to resurrect the old story of 'The Jewish Cemetary of Prague' a known Russian forgery conspiracy of an old 19th century book's satire about the Jews__It's just one of the modern world's new pseudo-conspiracies entering the top of all the web searche engines__the hard left are so gullible of falling for__'Zeitgeist on Steroids...'


Hi L_____, and thanks for the question...

Modal thinking imo, first started with Socrates, in his playful manner of questioning the youth of Athens. As the article above also points out, Aristotle also mentioned quite a bit about modal thinking. The first I'm aware of it really being expanded upon is by the debates between Biruni and Ibn Sina when discussing his extensions of Aristotle's logic system, and adding in a rudimentary quaternion thought system, and his 'Flying Man' analogy of his metaphor of thinking and pure thought. The next to take up what the Persians had extented logic to be understood as, was Albertus Magnus, the teacher of St. Thomas Acquinas__then to the scholastics Scotus and Ocham... This was all as relates to modal thinking and modal logics, then described as the 'logica utens' and the 'logica docens'__which I believe is Magnus' interpretations of the Persians...

Muse of course goes back to early times also, as music and musing about our thoughts, but really takes on its modern form in Scotus' and Ocham's works__who were the midieval periods’ deepest thinkers. Both these men did extreme musings about the depths of thought about thought__or the modal logic, as it's become known since a short time after Scotus and Ocham. The play aspect of musing and modal thought seems to have more entered in the 18th and 19th centuries, in several different philosophers works, as they realized this deep thinking about thinking, many of us do, is actually ourselves playing with the thoughts in our minds, so deep, the easiest way to track it seems to be to make it a mind-game, such thinkers as myself choose to do__to recover the deeper meanings and actions of thought. I think it was Peirce to be the first one to connect all the pieces together, from the ancients to the moderns__that the deepest logics were much like children playing, as it's a flow of information processing that works much as children at play...

Peirce didn't put 'Modal Muse' together, but my interpretation of all these ideas just sorta evolved into uniting the two phrases together, especially after listening to so much Cat Stevens' music about his 'Muse...' It's in this album... LINK...

So, I'm the guilty one for inventing the phrase, 'Modal Muse'__but with all the historical perspective I'm looking at, it's quite apt. I've been toying with this area of thought for years now, and I finally saw through it all the way, because we are taking up Socrates next week, at our Philosophy meeting__and it's about his modal musing thinking in this area__and by all the pieces coming together at once__it just came out as the 'Modal Muse...' It's just a simple and fun way of doing deep philosophical logic thinking... A little playfulness makes it easier...


All modal intelligence has an agenda__The 'Modal Muse' is our 'self-designed/designer intelligence decision engine' at the deepest levels of all our brains. No-one can escape the fact that they are either playing the modal muse of emotions against intellect, or the modal muse of intellect against emotions. Seldom does anyone abandon their core agenda of their deepest felt modal operator/explicand/operand state__It's the C.I.A. of all our puny brains__That lil' ol' 'central intelligence agency' called our 'Modal Muse...'

Some think they can hide their agendas__none can hide these agendas from everyone__'You can fool some of the people all the time, some of the people some of the time, but never all the people, all the time...'

Few have the ability to stand in the middle, and purposely switch between 'Modal Muse' modes of intelligences...

The simple actionable 'Free-Will Modal Muse' stands guard over all__sitting/relaxing with the 'Muse of Laughter...'

"Never take the world seriously. It doesn't take itself seriously..."


“Thank you for your reply in detail, Lloyd and congratulations on coining a new phrase. In doing a quick search, I was unable to come up with 'Modal Muse' in phrase, only other variants, and therefore my question to you regarding origin.

You have long suggested that anyone can understand the mechanism by which they actually utilize their mind, if they but apply themselves to the task. (Excuse me if I have phrased this not exactly as you intend, yet that was the meaning that I gleaned.)

From long observation of persons in similar circumstances who make dramatically different choices, and so arrive at completely different outcomes, I now would ask how you have come to the determination that 'all modal intelligence has an agenda'.”

Hi L______, and thanks again for the excellent question to take the analysis even deeper still...

Since the dawn of time, humanity has been trying to more deeply understand the functioning of the lil' ol' ball sitting atop our shoulders__at differing periods, this investigation has advanced, and at other times of many varried cultures__it has receded, in the effectiveness of the intelligence discoveries. What was earlier known becomes lost, obscured or outright changed__and societies have gone all directions of discovery and obscuration of the quest__This I think is un-debatable__But, the question must be asked as to 'Why...???' When we just ask this simple question, we quickly realize a much deeper investigation is warrented. All throughout the ages, the deepest investigators have been the philosophers, especially the epistemic and modal logicians and mathematicians__even though psychologists have also investigated the same areas of intelligence evolution and devolution__they have never developed the elaborate system of categories and models of understanding this complex ball o' mush, as have the philosophers__with their many avenues of investigative mind sciences. If you were able to do a total historical survey, I think you'd come to the same conclusions__as the psychologists never developed a way of defining the distinctions between belief and certainty__as have the philosophers__though the modern world has greatly confused and conflated these category distinctions and mechanics of understanding, the many philosophers helped to define. Where psychology lacks the best tools is in their inability to have ever produced a scientific method to defease/divide beliefs from experiential exaggerations into sound and reasonable facts__whereas philosophy, even as far back a Plato devised elaborate category systems to do and understand just this...

Upon my extensive reading of all history's psychologists and philosophers, I deemed necessary, as it was becoming a repeat of informations, I had amassed enough insight to see how these two sides of the mind functioned__all throughout history__at least satisfactory to my mind's insatiable thirst... And, what I realized was the fact that the philosophers, and especially the epistemologists and logicians were the clearest and best at keeping experiential ideas in the categories where they belonged, and also keeping the sciences of the world in the categories where they belonged__In fact, they all produced, or at least used others' category lists, all throughout history__In fact__Plato's categories lists can still be generally effectively used even today. Now, where the experiential psychologists were concerned, even if they produced categories lists as have many, such as Maslow and Batesman have__neither they nor any other psychologists honor the more profound and thoroughly more intricate categories of the philosophers, mathematicians and logicians__which sets psychology apart from history's flow of information, which in turn creates a very incomplete and narrower minded psychology system__as a whole__than is philosophy... This is all cultures' major difference evolution at the core agenda level of all psyches involved__It starts in the evolution of systems, and moves down through the cultures...

This is the main fact contributing to the modal intelligences' agendas you asked about__It's according to which school of thought one is more apt to adhere to__and this is in no way to be a concrete fact__as there are many people like you, I and others who do not fall into either of these categories__but do have the ability of knowing our free-will choices to jump from one side of the psychological experiential systems' thinking, to the philosophical intellectual logical systems' thinking__But, and this is a big But__Most of society is quite trapped emotionally and intellectually in one side or the other__as I noticed in reasearchings so many great and not so great minds of history__and all of us can overly easily notice right here on TQ, if we but look deeply enough at the wording... It may take a deeper understanding of possible wording associations for average and general minds to see this__but, I assure you it's there from my experience of seeing it in history and here at TQ__and is the source of the opposing intelligence agendas__And when anyone is pushed to the breaking point of their modal agendas__they will most always fall to one side or the other of the experiential emotional agenda__or to the experiential intellectual agenda... As I stated in earlier posts__'Only a few have the mental fortitude to hold the middle ground of absolute observation__without experiential modal agenda action taking center stage...' We are all guilty of this, including myself... I can point it out from my vast experience__but that doesn't mean I can be absolutely true to my own knowledge of it__at the same time... That's life...

“Certainly, I like to believe that it is the result of my own choices in the face of circumstances that the opportunity of life affords that has gotten me thus far on the journey, yet oftentimes I suspect that I have no agenda save to enjoy the most experiencing while avoiding both the giving or receiving of resistance or stress.

The path of least resistance, yet not really, as it seems that while I avoid challenge (save for good old physical sweat, lol....) challenge often seeks me out.

If each has their own agenda, and many seemingly unaware, that is a path for ponder. While I have ever reserved the option of choice, I tend to be user friendly in that I trust nature to supply the options. Thus far, nature has not disappointed me. That privilege has been reserved unto my fellow beings, myself included.”

Well L_______, from my observation of the motivated operations of individuals, most__all their lives__would never even consider they may have an agenda, and live happily to their death without realizing one way or the other__But, if any were asked to seriously contemplate such as their own agendas may be__What do you think the answers may be...???

Then, especially if pushed to confront these deep experiential motives__What do you think the outcomes would be__and the %'s of...???

I think it would be very surprising for all to actually see and realize their true operational agendas broadcast to all the people they meet__I think you'll find__most people are more afraid of these true experiential agendas being seen through__than all the poverty, greed and crime on Earth__because this would expose the truth of how the Rich are actually usurping the private ownership of all nations' peoples' rights and well-being__and slowly but surely, installing all property in their own private pockets__The truth of modern computerized market mechanics of 'The Global Corporate State...'__as long as the people's modal agenda__stays asleep...!!!

Remember__Inaction is as much of a modal agenda, as is action...

Hope I'm not being too pushy__but the world's on fire...

Monday, October 3, 2011


Date: 12-25-02 21:09

"All problems using crude money must be overcome to survive the future eco-techno-electrosphere."

"Since the first wave agricultural revolution only required simple single entry banking –– and the second wave industrial revolution invented and required double entry banking –– then the third wave technological revolution [will] invent and [require] "TRIPLE ENTRY BANKING.""

In 1982 I empirically discovered an entirely new capitalist monetary system. This system is in direct evolution with the existing system. It is fully compatible with all known forms of money systems –– past – present – or future. The system is INTERNAL EXCHANGE CLEARING –– TRIPLE ENTRY BANKING – a transactions truth. This new monetary system can be implemented cost free and effectively either unilaterally or globally. It can be instituted on a percentage basis from one percent, to twenty percent –– its most cost effective and productive percentage of operations' basis.

In this short paper, I will explain why I feel a new monetary system is necessary –– what it exactly is –– and how to painlessly implement it. First, I will discuss the present capitalist system to make clear why such a new system is needed. I will frame my discussion on four tenets –– demographics –– jobs and wages –– the present floating exchange rate non-regime –– and the technological revolution.

Many falsely believe the miracle of capitalist markets will cure all our future problems. Let me see if I can change your mind, to show markets of the future may need some new help. The most glaringly obvious problem is one of demographics alone. With the nation five trillion dollars in debt and both political parties fighting for the next spendable penny, when we at present don't yet have a demographic problem –– where do you think the money is coming from to support the retirement of the massive increase of baby-boomers?

This is not only a problem of our nation, but that of all industrial nations and many of the world's lesser nations as well. Japan has been flat on its economic back for five years now. Europe also has flat growth, high unemployment, massive debts, and intolerable rates of taxation. We need say little of the lesser nations as everyone is well aware of their bankrupt conditions. If we are short of the necessary funds now, what nation or group of nations is going to grow enough to resolve the present quagmire –– let alone the future's massive demographic increase of tax burdens? How will they grow? What economic incentives and organizations are presently planned and feasible? Are they capable of meeting future needs? I simply ask you to be the judge.

If nations are to grow their way out of the demographic problems of the future, where are the jobs and wages necessary to do so coming from? At present we are downsizing every economy in the world –– with massive mergers, outsourcing, and layoffs. Wages for forty to fifty percent of the population of America alone have declined over the last twenty years. Yes, it is true some at the top have benefited precipitously –– but at the cost of the bottom? High skilled jobs, such as unions, have shrunk dramatically –– from thirty-six percent of the work force to sixteen percent of the workplace. Are these evidences of true growth in jobs and wages over the last twenty years ––– as many would have us believe? And they fight against an increase in the minimum wage! Where will jobs and wages come from when the computer-robotic-revolution displaces more human workers ––– daily?

I don't mean to sound pessimistic, as I am not. I am only painting a true picture of present capitalism's stature. The system I am proposing –– INTERNAL EXCHANGE CLEARING –– is thoroughly optimistic. So bear with me while I make my points about the present system's problems.

If you think these problems can be easily solved by conventional policy and market performance, you know little of the workings in the foreign exchange markets. These markets exist wherever a foreign exchange takes place –– sort of everywhere and nowhere. They exist everywhere a computer-telephone link is, and nowhere is there any real control. This system is an absolute free-for-all buying, selling, and swapping trillions of dollars and other currencies around the world at the speed of light twenty-four hours a day –– three-sixty-five days a year. The global transactions' figures presently stand somewhere between two-hundred-fifty and two-hundred-seventy-five trillion dollars per year. They are well over a trillion dollars per business day.

In order to understand the above, you must know these markets encompass the Euro-dollar system – the entire foreign exchange system – the forward exchange markets – the entire international banking system – interest, goods, and services arbitrage and hedging – derivatives – swaps – fixed and floating currencies – nations' inflation and tax systems – and all nations' governments and actions –– to mention just a few. The above includes the most intricate and complex of markets in the world. When the courts can't even understand these intricate markets –– how are the policy makers supposed to?

Let me give you a clear example of the above. George Soros has stated "Speculators can short the markets a trillion dollars quicker than governments can print it." He should know as he made one billion dollars on one speculative trade in 1993 against the European Economic Community –– which he documented in his book "SOROS ON SOROS". This is no isolated case, I assure you. Andrew Krieger has also written a book of his speculative exploits titled "THE MONEY BAZAAR – Inside the Trillion-Dollar World of Currency Trading." Both these books are excellent first hand sources of information about speculating against the present easily manipulated floating exchange non-system. Systems of this character must change to survive the ever increasing encrypted computerized future.

If you think the above issues can be brought under policy control – of two warring political parties in our country – I think you have missed the boat. Not only is it almost politically impossible in our own country, but it is even more politically unlikely to succeed globally. Internal tension and gridlock prevents local problem solving, while global tensions of Chinese communism, and Islamic fundamentalism prevents international problem solving. For these reasons, I have designed INTERNAL EXCHANGE CLEARING to be instituted and function properly unilaterally –– with the support and respect of both warring political parties –– and to further be complementary to and compatible with external international processes.

Before explaining the above system, we must explore my fourth tenet –– the technological revolution. Professor of history Paul Kennedy has done the definitive work in this area. I would like to add my vision about the future of technology. I can nowheres near compare to the stature of Mr. Kennedy, but I have a unique perspective –– as I am an international currency and market speculator –– with considerable computer and robotics expertise.

Mr. Kennedy has rightfully shown the nightmare scenario we could be headed for if change is not undertaken. For his part of warning us, he has received the title of "Dr. Doom." Not only is his work not about doom, it is the most accurate possible course of history I have seen. We have a choice to let the future play out terribly ––– or to change it for the better. We had better listen to those who have better ideas than our own.

With all nations being forced by competition to adopt the latest advances in technology –– we are locked in an ever increasing scenario of technological evolution. The forces of markets are pushing us closer to a robotic and databased wage and pricing mechanism future. As the power and agility of robots increase, companies and corporations will be forced by competition to implement this new technology –– thus eliminating more human jobs and wages. Already, Japan is re-importing jobs they earlier outsourced to human labor, to be handled by robots cheaper at home. In other words, even some of the third world's labor is losing to robots –– and we have just begun. Databases, once simply a tool of improving efficiency within companies and corporations, are now being employed to handle massive world pricing mechanisms and on time global delivery systems. Competition in this area will be the most fierce, because it is the most cost effective method to improve profits. This area alone will be where massive layoffs of upper income workers will come from. So ––– while robots lay off the bottom tier –– databases lay off the top tier! And if you don't think this is true –– just check out who is tops on the web ––– Digital and Inktomi – the fastest!

The future will see massive increases in the use of robots to eliminate human labor and wages' costs –– competition requires it. We will see massive increases in the use of giant supercomputer databases and on time global delivery systems to eliminate human labor and wages' costs –– competition requires it. These two technologies alone can do nothing but downsize further the entire global economy ––– eliminating massive human work forces and wages –––– for the bottom line –––––––– profits!!!

There is no turning back. We must go forward with new monetary systems.




"All problems using crude money must be overcome to survive the future eco-techno-electrosphere."

"Anyone who thinks the use of crude money will not be necessary in the future is crazy!"

"The present electronic world is diminishing collective opportunity ––– fast!"

Over the past two centuries we have built a wondrous spectacle for the rest of the world to emulate. We have set the standards high for civil human conduct and happiness. The moral, ethical, and family stance we take should make us proud and respected. The institutions we have erected set the rest of the world at awe. Our scientific and industrial evolution and strength have revolutionized the entire planet –– especially since the end of WWII... So why do we feel so insecure?

The reason is we have reached economic entropy under the present world monetary systems and organizations. The technology revolution is creating real job and wage decreases as population increases. This is why we feel so insecure and helpless. To this point in time there are no serious conventional solutions being put forth. This is why I am offering an unconventional solution to our present economic stalemate.

On the surface "INTERNAL EXCHANGE CLEARING" is not a difficult system to understand. It is simply a system to reorganize the control of the foreign exchange market to function more efficiently through internal mechanisms instead of external –– thus making more productive use of our or all nations' national debts. This system will stabilize exchange and inflation rates internally and externally when instituted. This is the real solution we truly seek –– to once and for all end inflation and disequilibria of the exchange rate mechanism. Only this solution will increase real jobs and wages in the coming eco-tecno-electronic revolution of the twenty-first century.

Why? You may ask will this system work better than the present one? What? You may ask is this system and how does it work? I should warn you, this system should not be confused with external exchange clearing advocated by Plato and Dr. Paul Einzig –– though they are the inventors of the groundwork of this system. Plato first advocated such a system some twenty-four-hundred years ago, and Dr. Paul Einzig (the WWII Finance Minister of England) has written the only book on exchange clearing I believe to be in print (Exchange Control, Macmillan and Co.1934). "INTERNAL EXCHANGE CLEARING" is simply a higher evolution of these two great men's work.

"INTERNAL EXCHANGE CLEARING" is based on a new framework of laws for existing markets to function under more efficiently. These new laws recognize and solve the existing problems through a one-fifth military style "P.X". and a "TRIPLE ENTRY BANKING" system. You must realize we do not have a production or resource problem. We have a monetary problem the above system solves at no cost to any parties involved. You say, "This is the old free lunch impossibility." I say, "The future being fast diminished by technological evolution requires a semi-free lunch." Notice this system is only a one-fifth change of existing structures –– and when further inspected is even no total change in existing assets. The system I am proposing takes from no-one, yet has the ability to operate semi-philanthropically for the benefit of all.

The one-fifth level mentioned above does not require being instituted at the twenty-percent level. The system can safely evolve to the twenty-percent level in small increments per year –– through the guidance of the new social contract laws we pass. At present, most every nation of the world is governed approximately twenty-percent by the external forces of multinational trade and international financial flows. "INTERNAL EXCHANGE CLEARING" simply moves the control of the functioning of the mechanics of these markets from external malfunction to internal function. It does not change any actual control of these real and complex markets. They are still free to function as is even after institution. The real change only takes place internally, where we set government in competition with existing business at the one to twenty-percent over time level. By this I mean a reduction in present nationalization from its some forty-percent level to its new twenty-percent level. To accomplish the above, a national set price "P.X." will be instituted, where one to twenty-percent of everything from dust to diamonds is available to all comers alike –– citizen and entrepreneur alike. This is a government created independent "P.X" market totally separate from all present existing businesses –– yet set in competition with all existing business to create truly competitive and fair markets for all players and citizens alike. This market by the very existence of its instituted mechanics automatically controls all inflation, exchange rates, and prices into fair and equitable balances –– once and for ever!

The above market will be semi-philanthropically subsidized by the new "TRIPLE ENTRY BANKING" system –– which must be instituted along with the "P.X." and "INTERNAL EXCHANGE CLEARING" systems. The functioning of the above markets' instituted mechanics make the semi-philanthropic system possible. The system will function unilaterally or universally. It is best recommended as a universal system –– though there is nothing to prevent its unilateral success as well. The advantage of multilateral acceptance is the cooperation of all nations advancing in unison to lessen world tensions. The philanthropic percentage could be set by agreement among many or all participating nations' equal ratios of GNP expansions.

I often state,"We need a fixed value monetary system. At the present time, we have none. Under floating exchanges, America is simply a powerful ship on an ocean, with no rudder. Old gold, silver, and other known standards will no longer work. They will not work due to the massive increases in communication's speed, the varied endowments of nations' natural resources, and encrypted international speculative opportunities. Therefore, we need a new system. INTERNAL EXCHANGE CLEARING is such a system. It is an entirely new fixed value enhancing - [production standard] - monetary system, to benefit all humankind."

It all comes down to: "If we set up government – all government – in business, in competition with existing private commercial business –– we can unilaterally make unlimited reasonable use of the printing press!"

Let's stop the ridiculous political and class battles and consider the abilities of the above to solve our problems ––– and once again unite us in all our desired goals and destinies.

Thank you,
L.A. Gillespie
web: http://macromouse.blogspot.com

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Capitalism's New Game of Global Change...


The Logic of Experience…!!!

“Carefully watch your thoughts
for they will become your words.
Manage and watch your words
for they will become your actions.
Consider and judge your actions
for they will become your habits.
Acknowledge and watch your habits
for they will become your values.
Understand and embrace your values
for they will become your destiny.”
Mahatma Gandhi

“If you think in straight lines, then you will go round in circles…” U.

Whoever marries the story of design and gaming technology with strategy, learning and leadership will create a series of disruptive services that will pioneer the paradigm shift in the business world... T. Coop

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Europe's Slide to Default...!

by Satyajit Das
July 21, 2011

Executed with Northern European creativity, charm, flexibility and humility and Mediterranean organization, leadership diligence and appetite for hard work, the European rescue plan–"the grand compact"–is failing.

Wrong Medicine
The EU response has relied on two mechanisms – the ECB and the European Financial Stability Fund ("EFSF").

The ECB has financed the beleaguered countries by buying their bonds in the secondary market (around euro 75 billion) and also by financing banks, against collateral of increasingly questionable quality such as Greek government bonds. There are allegations that the ECB and other European central banks have also used the euro-zone payments system to lend money (around euro 300 billion) to the crisis-stricken members. All this while the ECB has publicly been critical of banks, which are "addicted" to and substantially reliant on ECB financing.

The "temporary" EFSF due to terminate in 2013 proved poorly designed. Instead of the touted euro 440 billion, the fund had only the ability to lend around euro 250 billion, due to structural flaws. The EFSF is now to be replaced by the "permanent" European Stability Mechanism ("ESM") which will have lending capacity of euro 500 billion, the originally proposed level.

The euro 500 billion ESM facility too has deep structural flaws. It relies on a similar mechanism to the original EFSF to achieve its AAA rating – a system of separate guarantees and capital. The euro 500 billion fund is theoretically backed by euro 80 billion in cash and euro 620 billion in guarantees from euro-zone members.

The euro 80 billion will only be provided over 5 years starting in 2013. In part, this was a concession to member countries, including Germany, who were reluctant politically to provide the cash except on deferred terms. There is provision for speeding up payments into the funds if required, for example, by the need for additional bailouts. The facility also provides for member countries to provide cash to support the ESM, where its credit rating falls below a specified threshold to reduce the performance risk.

As with the EFSF, the reliance on euro-zone members guaranteeing each other is problematic. Some of the guarantors are themselves are vulnerable with the real and contingent liabilities. For example, every euro 100 billion provided by the ESM increases Italy’s potential liabilities by euro 18 billion, equivalent to 1% of the country’s GDP, and Germany’s potential liability by euro 27 billion, also equivalent to 1% of GDP.

Drawings on the facility may result in a spiral of credit downgrades and cash calls. For weaker guarantors, their financial position may be undermined, potentially encouraging them to withdraw from the ESM itself. For stronger members, it places increased pressure on their support and weakens their credit rating and finances.

The position is made worse by the fact that non-common currency EU members may not be part of the new structure. The UK has indicated that it will not be part of the ESM, depriving the euro-zone members of a significant source of funding and support (around 14% of the EFSF).

The ESM perpetuates existing and introduces new problems. Access to the ESM funding requires unanimous agreement amongst the euro-zone members. The ESM can provide loans only where the country agrees to accept EU/ IMF prescriptions for reformation of public finances and the economy. It will lend to the troubled country or purchase its bonds in the primary market, but not in the secondary market.

Unlike the EFSF arrangement, ESM funding would be senior to existing government debt (a standard feature of IMF rescues and bankruptcy financing, which was surprising excluded in the initial bailout condition). The ESM stipulates that restructuring is a requirement in the "unexpected" instance the government in question is determined to be "insolvent." In addition, from 2013, all future government bonds issued by euro-zone nations will need to include collective action clauses (CACs), designed to make restructuring mandatory under certain conditions.

If the current financing pressures on the troubled economies continue, then the existing support mechanisms may be inadequate. The countries, which have already sought bailouts, may need to seek additional support if commercial financing sources remain unavailable to them. Maturing debt and projected budget deficits for Greece, Ireland and Portugal will require around euro 300 billion in new funding between 2011 and 2013. If Spain needs to resort to the EU Funding mechanism, then the ability to provide additional would be severely strained.

In reality, an EU support mechanism of something in the order of euro 1.5-2.0 trillion would be needed to ensure a credible ability to bailout the embattled economies. Some European finance ministers have already called for an increase in the ESM to euro 1.5 trillion. If Italy was to need a bailout then the amount would be even larger - say euro 3-2.5 trillion. The political support for and economic viability of a facility of this size is unlikely.

At the same time, the terms of the ESM, especially the subordination of existing lenders to bailout funding and the mandatory CACs will increasingly force lenders and investors to avoid funding vulnerable countries. In effect, this will ensure that the peripheral economies becoming increasingly dependent on EU support, triggering the negative spiral described.

Skin in the Game
The EU bailouts have always primarily focused on protecting European banks from the effects of a default by borrowers such as Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

In total, banks in Germany, France and the UK have exposures of over euro 500 billion to these three countries. If exposure to Spain and Italy is included, the global banking system’s total exposure increases to around euro 2 trillion. The position is complicated by complex cross-lending arrangements. For example, banks in Spain, which may require support, have a euro 70 billion exposure to Portugal and a euro 13 billion exposure to Ireland.

Central to the European debt problems is the credit boom that took place following the introduction of the euro. Prior to monetary union in 1999, interest rates charged on loans to individual countries better reflected risk of loss - from currency movements and ability to repay debt. The introduction of the euro eliminated currency risk. Surprisingly, credit spreads fell sharply, reflecting a lack of differentiation between the credit quality of individual nations.

The mis-pricing of risk was driven by a belief that the entire euro zone was AAA rated because of the "implicit" support of Germany. An additional factor was the fact under Basel 1 and to a lesser extent under Basel 2 banking regulations, lending to sovereign nations attracted favorable capital treatment. The combination of these factors drove lending to the peripheral countries and their banks fuelling large credit booms which are now unwinding.

Much of this debt – in the form of sovereign debt, lending to banks and also structured securities based on mortgage and corporate loans – is held by smaller banks in France and Germany. If Greece, Ireland, Portugal and (ultimately) Spain have to restructure the debt, then these banks will suffer significant losses. It is unclear whether banks, especially in Germany and France, have sufficient capital and reserves, to bear these losses. The IMF’s bi-annual Financial Stability Report has consistently argued that the euro-zone banks have not been recognized losses adequately. The inadequate 2010 stress tests conducted by European central banks and the ECB did not countenance the prospect of a sovereign default in determining bank solvency. There are suggestions that the underlying position of some European banks, especially German Landesbanks, is highly problematic.

In June 2011, Moody’s changed its outlook on 13 mid-sized and smaller Italian banks to negative and warned it could downgrade the long-term debt ratings of 16 others. This followed its announcement that it had put Italy’s sovereign debt on review for possible downgrade. Italian banks were less affected by the financial crisis due to conservative lending culture and high levels of domestic retail deposits. Despite these strengths, concerns about possible contagion from the peripheral countries and the problems of Italy itself in bailing out these countries are now increasingly problematic.

Default or restructuring of European debt, in all probability, will require State involvement in recapitalizing these institutions. In essence, attention will switch from bailouts of sovereign nations to bailing out affected national banks.

ECB Hurt Money
Default or restructuring would also affect the ECB, which holds around euro 50 billion of Greek debt alone. The ECB’s total exposure to Greece, including lending to Greek banks and loans against Greek government bonds, is much higher – euro 130-140 billion.

If Greece defaults, then the ECB could suffer losses as high as euro 65-70 billion (say 50% of the amount advanced). The losses would almost certainly require recapitalization of the ECB itself by euro-zone members. As of 1 January 2011, the ECB had paid up capital of euro 5.2 billion (due to be increased progressively to euro 10.8 billion). The ECB is owned by the 17 euro-zone central banks with the combined capital of around Euro 80 billion.

The ECB’s position on whether peripheral countries like Greece should be allowed to default increasingly appears to be complicated by its own vulnerable financial position. When Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, an Italian board member, stated that a Greek debt restructuring would be "suicide" he may have been referring to the ECB. Statements about Anglo-Saxon "vested interests" seeking the restructuring of Greek debt are now matched by the ECB’s "self interest" in avoiding the same.

The effect on wider money markets of defaults is unpredictable. Depending on the quantum of losses and the recapitalization requirements, the event could create concerns about affected euro-zone banks, providing a channel for contagion in financial market. This could destabilize markets, transmitting the shock through high cost and reduced availability of financing, in a manner similar to what happened after the bankruptcy filing by Lehman Brothers in 2008.

Grand Confusions
The deeply flawed European strategy entailed providing financing to meet maturing debt and budget deficits at a time when markets were not open to the borrower or, at least, at reasonable rates. The EU/ ECB/ IMF funding would reduce borrowing costs to alleviate the pressure on public finances. The "temporary" measures would provide the country with the opportunity to reform its public finances and economy to make its debt burden more manageable. In time, the measures would allow the borrower to regain the confidence of commercial lenders and regain access to markets. As a corollary, banks would be able to build up reserves and capital against the possibility of some modest write-off as a result of some "minor" restructuring of debt, in the unlikely event that this was required.

Unfortunately, the premise that it was a "liquidity" rather than a "solvency" problem was incorrect. Breaking ranks, with other European central banks, Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, stated uncategorically that in his view it was an issue of solvency.

In reality, markets understood that the EU bailouts were a "get-out-of-jail" pass for poor lending decisions. There was no way that any of these nations would ever be able to service or repay current and projected levels of borrowing. The EU facility provided a means for the distressed nations to repay maturing debt and finance their deficits. In effect, the EU and official bodies have replaced commercial lenders as debt providers.

The bailout plan did not lower the nation’s interest costs or their access to markets. Interest rates on borrowing for Greece and Ireland are higher now than at the time of their bailouts. Despite the likelihood of EU support, Portugal’s cost of funds is unsustainably high. Spain and other countries, such Italy and Belgium, seen as vulnerable by investors have seen their borrowing costs rise inexorably.
The bailouts have made its less not more likely that these countries will regain access to markets in the near future. As existing debts mature, the funding provided official sources, the EU, ECB and IMF, is increasing. As these countries need additional financing, the absence of private financing will increase this proportion even further, leaving them to bear the bulk of losses in any restructuring.

The lack of confidence reflects the failure of the rehabilitation plans and the continued unsustainability of the debt levels of these countries. The lack of economic growth and deteriorating public finances is not likely to reverse soon. Even in the most optimistic scenarios, gross public debt in the most troubled economies will continue to increase as continued budget deficits will require financing. Greece’s debt to GDP is likely to stabilize at around 160-180% around 2014/ 2015. Ireland, Portugal and Spain’s debt to GDP will reach 125-140%, 100-115% and 85-100% over the same period. Italy and Belgium already have debt to GDP ratios above 100%, but their budget deficits are lower and they are less dependent of foreign investors. Italy, burdened with very high levels of debt and low growth, has recently been placed on "negative" credit watch by rating agencies.

Even at subsidized interest rates, the debt burden for Greece, Ireland and Portugal looks unsustainable, rendering the countries insolvent. Spain’s position is better, but problems in the country’s banking sector as the property boom unwinds would strain its finances significantly. If Italy's cost of financing continues to rise then its debt servicing burden too may prove unsustainable. Slower than forecast global growth would place even greater pressure on all these countries.
These concerns about solvency will drive the lack of access to private financing, especially post 2013 because of the subordination provision and the mandatory inclusion of CACs. The failure of the grand compact will increase pressure to ultimately restructure debt in some form at some stage.

In the near term, the EU and euro-zone members seem likely to persist with the failed strategy. Portugal’s bailout package will be financed by the EU, EFSF and IMF. Further funding needs will be accommodated as they emerge from the existing facilities as much as possible, until these are exhausted. The ECB will continue to support the bailout plans. German insistence on commercial lenders sharing some of the burden has wavered. Instead fuzzy ideas of a "voluntary" commitment of existing lenders to re-finance existing, maturing debt will gain traction.

Over time, the palpable failure of the bailout strategy–extend and pretend–will progressively be revealed. Pressure will emerge to improve the term of the bailout package.

Already, Greece has received reductions in interest rates on bailout funding and some extension in the terms of the financing. The need to provide additional funding to Greece of around euro 120 billion is already under discussion. In all probability, some deal will be done to provide the funds, against Greek promises that cannot and will not be met. There will be more and more of the same, in a desperate effort to avoid default or restructuring.

In the end, default or restructuring will become inevitable. Initially, minor changes, such as lowering coupons and extending maturities, perhaps as part of debt swaps, will be sought to manage the problem. Ultimately, a major restructuring, involving a significant write off of outstanding debt is likely. This is the case for Greece and perhaps the other peripheral countries.

Such defaults would be the first by a developed country since 1948. As most of the debt is issued under local law, a swift restructuring is feasible by the agreement of a simple majority or super majority (say 2/3rds of lenders). Based on history, a loss of around 30-70% of the face value of obligations is expected. The longer the time taken over the process, the greater the likely losses to holders of the obligations. The reason being that unless the debt burden is reduced early, continuing high servicing costs and deficits will continue to increase the level of write off necessitated to restore solvency.

A Matter of Political Classes
European decision making increasingly echoes Shakepeare’s Richard II’s lament: "I wasted time, and now doth time waste me." The EU and major euro-zone members, notably Germany and France, lack the political courage or will to tackle the problem. The absence of an "easy" and "painless" solution means that career politicians and euro-crats see no benefit in advocating the complex and messy process of default and restructuring.

European leaders dissemble that the debt crisis was the result of traders and financial markets. Anders Borg, Sweden’s finance minister spoke of "wolf-pack markets". José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, Spain’s Prime Minister, blamed "cynical hedge funds", "cocky credit-ratings agencies" and "neoconservative capitalism." Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou accused traders of visiting "psychological terror" on his country. Michel Barnier, the European commissioner for the single market, accused financial institutions of "making money on the back of the unhappiness of the people." Mr. Zapatero also found fault with a duplicitous Anglo-Saxon press. In short, it seems anybody but the Europeans are to blame. Cognitive dissonance looms large.

Increasingly, the trajectory of the crisis is driven by political considerations. The denouement to the European debt crisis, probably some way off, will come via by the "street" or the ballot box.

In the afflicted nations, public protests and disturbances are increasing as the populace rejects greater austerity. Populist politicians, willing to reject the need for further "sacrifice" and repudiate the country’s debt, hover in the wings. The argument that the country will be an international "financial pariah" doesn’t carry much weight when you are already one with no one likely to lend you money any time soon. It also has less weight when you don’t have a job and the country is on the brink of social breakdown.

For the countries that must provide the bulk of the bailout money, there is angst that the increased level of financing required by the problem borrowers has turned the EU into a "transfer union." Karl Otto Pöhl, the former head of the Bundesbank, stated that: "The foundation of the euro has fundamentally changed as a result of the decision by euro-zone governments to transform themselves into a transfer union. That is a violation of every rule. In the treaties governing the functioning of the European Union, it explicitly states that no country is liable for the debts of any other. But what we are doing right now, is exactly that. Added to this is the fact that, against all its vows, and against an explicit ban within its own constitution, the European Central Bank (ECB) has become involved in financing states."

The lack of decisive and timely action has allowed smaller political parties to gain momentum. Parties like Finland’s True Finns and France’s Far Right, rejuvenated under the leadership of Marine le Pen, have gained electorally on a policy platform of a mix of rejecting bailouts, nationalism, anti-immigration and other sundry forms of xenophobia.
Discontented and angry voters in Germany and other saving nations at some stage may also decide to call time on the fruitless and self-defeating support for the overly indebted euro-zone members.

Having falsely linked the problem of over indebted states with the canards of the continuation of the euro and the survival of the euro-zone itself, Europe is increasingly drifting towards an inevitable, disastrous and destabilizing debt crisis. Rather than amputating a gangrenous limb, European leaders risk poisoning the entire body fatally – weakening the financial positions of the stronger euro-zone members and their economies, which are paying for the bailout and will suffer the losses when the inevitable defaults come.

Monday, August 1, 2011

The Complex “Epistemology of Logic” & The Simple “Intentionality of Fucus…”

(This may offer some help Tim. I wrote it for a general audience of philosophers…)

How does one even begin to describe the mechanics of self-logic__that’s a logic, looking at itself, to understand itself…? Is it even possible, without running straight into the many epistemological, teleological and ontological unsolved historical problems, of others’__thus far attempts__at trying to explain this concept, or its mechanics…? I know of no sound eclectic, polymathic philosopher or logician who did not try their best to clearly explain the epistemology of logic and rationality involved, but I still must come up short, of giving them full credit for their efforts__as I still see far too much left un-explained. Why has it been so difficult, to delve deep enough into the logic-psyche of perception, to truly understand it…? Does not intelligence equate to a__or the__knowledge of logic and psyche, within perception__or is this truly an incommensurability concept of the complex mechanics of logic and psychology__at the very core of our ‘heacceitic/supervenient/one-many’ understanding, of the total functioning mechanics…? Would an esthetics of intelligence better serve our foundations of understanding of this most complex a concept__and where does our simple intentionality of focus, fit in…? These are just a few of the questions I’m starting out with, to see if just possibly, I can achieve any better understanding, than all the great logicians’, estheticians’ and philosophers’ attempts__before me. Let’s see how I do…

The initial philosophical argument mainly goes back to pre-suppositional background stances, and primarily as to whether we put more faith and credit in meta-physics, psychology or logic__at least in my opinion. This would really be our primary intentional focus of mind and thought, and there are hundreds of historical examples to choose from here, or to create our own view, anew. These ideas really came fully to the front burner, back toward the end of the 19th century, with the positions taken by Frege, Brentano and Peirce__then Husserl, Wittgenstein and others, in the early 20th century. My position about their positions is; they all missed the mark of hitting the target directly, and the entire world has been awash in confusion and conflation of and about these necessary philosophical ideas’ solutions__unnecessarily so__ever since…

Yes, it does make it rather difficult to explain one’s pre-suppositional, or preferred intentional stance by way of any one of the three offered focus points__metaphysics, psychology or logic__but, no matter which one’s pre-suppositional or preferred intentional stance is, you’ll end facing the same exact dilemma of explanation__which usually ends in a Socratic ‘aporia’__so what’s to be done to clear this matter up__a bit…? Let’s deliberately start out in logic, to show the difficulty of understanding just how logic ‘Herself’ can see and explain its own mechanics, to itself. If logic looks at straight logic, all the way back into the core of the self-processing mind__what does it find…? All one needs do is ask; “How does logic process itself…?”__to immediately see how difficult this problem is. So, instead of fumbling around here with logic, let’s take the logic concept to its core__or shell, however you want it__which imo, would be no more than natural perception, in its most primary state__pure neutral innocent perception, which contains logic and her twin, rationality__as our dialectic ‘self-questioning-answering-twins’, except one is usually primary and the other secondary, but semiotics throughout history has shown them to be able to exchange positions, i.e., inter-exchange as the needs arise as to ascriptions of other essence agents’ needs to each other, to such reason, rationalities and or logics, etc, dynamics and mechanics. The reason perception is being described as a neutral innocent agency, is the simple fact one’s brain/mind absolutely requires at least one open agent to act as fully neutral__thus acting as a bridge to transfer all agent and agency signals__and since perception is known to be thoroughly neutral to outside nature entering the gates of perception, unaided by any other of our agents or agency__it’s fully known to be neutral__even if it may have other extended capacities, that may be mentioned later…

It now seems, we may have a pure enough agent/agency to start with, to house the other bio-neuro-agents necessary, to set up the dynamics of transducible inter-acting thought mechanics__if just a bit of imagination is used to build a model of the brain/mind. It seems philosophers and such, have simply not investigated deep enough inside neutral perception’s potential to be the house of all the brain’s necessary thought mechanics, where a multitude of ‘bio-neuro-agents’ are set up by our pre-natural states of physiological mechanics, to function as a simple reflective mirrors' system, memory storing and understanding/seeing device__we simply peer into with perception’s reason and logic__or even psychology and metaphysics, if desired to do so__It’s simply all milti-levels of seeing. But, what makes the giant differences between our metaphysical ground states of focus, vs our psychological and logical ground states of focus…?

Let’s just watch what really happens when we take a ground focus state of logic to look at a bunch of trees, on the side of a hill, overlooking a lake__What do we see if we simply casually look, without clearly focusing in on any one object…? We simply process the information as a general universal vision, which if you really think about it__is not logic at all__even though you may be a logician, as I am. In this scenario, my or your mind has really turned from processing the images logically, to processing them psychologically__yet, we’ll almost always insist it’s processing on our logical focus, as being the truest focus, as that’s our preferred, pre-self-programmed, pre-suppositional primary focus and stance. The same will be true if I reverse the order to that of the psychological pre-suppositional processing__yet ask the psychological focus to intentionally concentrate on a particular object__say a frog sitting on a rock__at the water’s edge. The psychological mind will turn logical on the passage of its preferred psychological pre-suppositional stance, to that of the logical focus, without you or me even recognizing it, and still, we’ll usually swear we are making a psychological observation, even though in fact__the nature of the beast of the mind has self-changed its very mechanics, under our very noses, without any of us even noticing__unless you happen to be one who is already fully aware of nature’s given mechanics, multi-variably self-operating within our brains and minds…

Now, watch what happens with the metaphysical__as it turns out to be the most universal focus stance to operate with, of all three__whether the logical or psychological minds have ever considered it or not__It has the natural power of ‘multi-variably-focusing’. The metaphysical has the advantage of resting neutrally in Nature’s own fundamental stance, if I can even word it like this, without offending some of the metaphysicians, logicians and psychologists. When pre-suppositionally positioning one’s focus knowingly and preferedly in the metaphysical stance__one has the easy choice of using either of the other two necessary positions of a general and universal psychological focus, or a particular and specific logical focus, yet still comfortably being able to return to its ground base of ‘multi-varible-metaphysics’__or the ground state of haecceity and supervenience__Nature’s own natural fundamental neutral processing state. So__Iff we wake up, we really do have a choice here__and it’s not one of any religious sort, but a simple choice of recognizing Ockham’s Razor’s ‘indiscernibility principle’ of the easiest possible ‘one/many’ processing path. We can foolishly fight the world of Nature’s reality, by insisting on being pre-suppositionally logical or psychological__or truly realize we can take the neutral stance and focus, on our ground point state of natural ‘one/many’ metaphysics__and thus allow our minds to ‘freely-flow’ from their natural ground states of their ‘multi-variable-focusing’ nature__Where we don’t have to control the states of our focus__where intentionality comes naturally, from our childhood memory states__before we foolishly chose either of the overly and unnecessarily hard paths of logic or psychology__as our overly-primary preferred mechanics of viewing this very natural and ‘uncomplicated’ world…

Metaphysics, over the centuries, may have got a bad rap and rep__but, it’s really a lot easier to accept what needs to be in the core of our understanding__the ‘one/many’ central concept__of our mind’s processing, than to unnecessarily fight the necessarily happening mechanics, of Nature’s natural systems__freely given to us, as a ‘best-fitting inference system mechanics’__Possible… I also wouldn’t want you to think this is real easy to understand, either__as it is not. I still think it takes the thorough understanding of sem(e)iotics’ very complex mechanics, of dynamic agent and agency interactions__along with a good dose of symbolic and graph logic__to fully understand the above, and according to one’s education and thought’s evolutionary state, what one may simply understand from the above’s more simple explanation…

The more complex I make this, the less it’ll be understood__so I’ll stop here… I’d simply suggest a good study of the web’s many pdf’s on epistemology and sem(e)iology, especially those by Charles Sanders Peirce and Bernard Bolzano, and any of the professionally done secondary literature of/on both__as it’s easier to understand, and quite thorough, if done by those authors who respect these great mens’ works…

“We should all know the full intentionality of our focus…” me

Addendum to the above:
I don’t quite know why it is so hard to state the above facts deep enough to achieve clarity, but I do know that every time I’ve tried to do just that__it’s been the most difficult job I’ve ever attempted, and I felt I haven’t accomplished the job I set out to do any better this time__so here’s an attempt to extend it to more meaning and clarity__if possible. First off, ‘Epistemology’, as I’m using it is to be known as ‘The science of the limits of logical knowledge, and its mechanics of mental processings’, and I’d like to recognize the fact I forgot to mention above that I was addressing normal logic/thought, of proto-logic/first logic, as that logic existing before we attempt any organization of normal logic into any type of formal logic. Also, the other proto-logic of ‘Modal Logic’ should be recognized as existing in this same area of thinking about this most fundamental level of logic. One never realizes how difficult this is, and the massive job Aristotle certainly had, to create the first formal logic ever produced. Yes, there existed a ‘formal modal logic’ before Aristotle, and that had been debated and argued extensively long before Aristotle, as to its three states of ‘possibility, impossibility and necessity’__and Aristotle included and extended the ideas of this also, but the deeper area of normal thinking to a fully formalized thinking of symbolic and syllogistic logic, was only first completed by Aristotle__the truest father of fully formal logic. I am simply trying to retrace this trail/train of thought through the ancient to modern paths, of how it must be understood__to function as the ‘formal logic’ it does(yet understood in more layman terms and ideas), or possibly extend it into a new ‘Best-Fitting hypothetical inference logic mechanics and proof system’__or really, a better and more complete explanation of ‘Abduction’__‘The true science and logic of hypothesis…’

Just to let you know further how difficult chasing out logical thought, within the mind, truly is__I started this quest intently, clear back in the summer of 1972__and have been working on the best way of wording it ever since. It seems I can word it in my mind, as clear as a bell, but when it comes to writing clearly about it, the mind has a mind of its own, and takes me off course, even before I even start. It seems the reason is the mind just needs to convert logical thinking to psychological and metaphysical thinking, back and forth in such fast succession__that it’s near impossible for my thinking to pin it down to the natural set path it’s taking, inside me lil’ ol’ punkin. I know I can use the formal symbolic logic and semiotics to explain it better, but my goal is to explain it with simple and natural language, any 5th grade student can understand__and therein lies the problem. Each time I try to nail down a simple thought and or logic path, it changes to another definition of mechanics, right before my eyes. It’s like when I attempt to follow the universal group focus or vision of anything I may choose, to its specific particular focus of vision and description__still trying to maintain the thought path__it blurs into a non-descriptive indiscernible non-image, before I can even latch onto the mechanical processes taking place, deep within my mind. Now, I know this is the deep epistemological mechanics taking place at this level__but, I still question the fact of why I can’t keep track of what I know to be the essence agents, agency and mechanics the sem(e)iotic mechanics must choose from, to complete the concept to concept process__through all its disjuncts and conjuncts. And this means I’m fully aware of the eclectic mechanics taking place between the will having to choose its many different judgment and decision mechanics levels, as per say__empiricism, rationality, memory states of both subjective and objective storage event states, present working memory and direct perception states of subjective and objective events and objects, ascripted emotional judgments, formal rational judgments, all the many thousands of inference images, experiences, experiments and ideas from the outside and inside worlds of reality and natural memory, teleological ideas, ontological ideas, mereological ideas, disjunctions and conjunctions of all these many possible states of normal forms into formal forms, etc., on and on__But, my question has always been; “Why can’t I follow this total path mechanics, if I know it all exists…?”

It seems the mechanical process is just so fast at switching between the most fundamental states of logic, psychology and metaphysics(self-chosen as representative mental states) into a more uniform state of isomorphic mechanics of states, the mind is, or at least seems to be, simply incapable of following its own state changing mechanics__thoroughly enough__to capture its full integral path from first visions and thoughts, into final states of either group thoughts, if starting from the particular and passing to the Universal, or to particular specific final logic states, if starting from the group Universal thoughts, and processing to the specific logical states. What I’m trying to see into is; “Is it possible that nature’s natural inference state, may be interfering with all the state paths I am following, and entering her own state changing path mechanics, I can not normally see…?” We certainly know our eyes and perception take in the external world around us, totally passively, if we but do not interfere, by our intentionality of focus__so this same process, must by necessity, be happening all the time, we are also at the same time__internally processing our own private thoughts__therefore; ‘Nature, all by herself, must by necessity of inference flow mechanics, be changing the disjuncts and conjuncts of concepts integral paths, within the mind, as I’m looking at it…’ There is no reason we’d be able to see this ‘Natural Inference Mechanics’, because we don’t normally see it happening__that is as to its exact integral path mechanics, unless we re-represent it within our reflective perceptual working memory states, where our will can manipulate it__But, that initial ‘Natural Inference Mechanics’, would be taking place before our ‘Will and Judgments’ even became involved__and herein__"I’ve just this second realized”__is the lil’ ol’ ‘trickster demon’ that’s actually fooling our mind mechanics, at its most primary path state intersection__though it’s not really a ‘trickster demon’__but merely nature's natural mental biological-neuro-states’ necessary mechanics’ paths__to enable the mind to be fed any information__in the first place__to even have begun to work on, as all first inferred information must have a free-path circuit, to simply store such necessary primary information in the brain’s memory, without being self-judgment or decision acted upon, or we’d all get far too easily lost in any of our simplest motive actions in the real world__Nature requires a ‘free-path mechanics’, just as much as we require, at the least, a ‘partially free will’. The secret seems to be no more than ‘Inference Path Necessity of Nature’s Natural Mechanics…’ Simply put; “We can’t stop the natural path integral mechanics of Nature, influencing our personal will, judgment, decision and action mechanics__completely__so, we actually process all information in conjunction with Nature…” Thus, such a co-processing mechanics of images and thoughts, would absolutely necessitate a co-processing determined 'free-path' and indetermined ‘partially’ 'free-will…'

Now, maybe later, I can fully retrace all my thoughts from fundamental nature’s own inference mechanics, to my own natural to formal logical mechanics…

I’ll get back to this later in another post, as this discovery has over-flooded my mind, at this point__I need some thought space…